Καλοκαιρινές Αγορές

A look at Greek market performance during the summer months

It’s summertime so let us explore the seasonal trends of the Greek stock market. Considering Greece's reputation as a top vacation spot, how does this fare as a market destination during the summer months?

First, a few thoughts on what’s been an unprecedented win streak for the Greek market. It is up 8 months in row, that’s never happened before. At first glance it is normal to say well Greek stocks are running too hot, and that may be true, but I think its a catch up trade. Greek stocks have been laggards for a longtime and all of this is now being caught up and condensed in a short amount of time.

The Greek market is already up a remarkable 34% this year, ranking it in the top 5 of ALL global stock markets. If we look at the pace of this year’s rally through June, it is tied for the third best start to any year.

As we head into the core summer, July stands out as a particularly strong month for the Greek stock market. On average, it is the second-best month of the year, with an average gain of 3.1%. Historical data from 1999 shows that July has been positive 16 times compared to 11 negative outcomes. This pattern indicates a favorable environment for investors during July, often making it a key month for market activity. August tends to be most split, with an even number of outcomes but on average is a down month.

One comment on seasonality as it seems to be going out this window this year. June is historically the worst month for Greek stocks, but it was higher by over 3% this year. Symbolic that Greek markets are on such a tear they are brushing off all their old historical stigmas.

As mentioned, Greek stocks have had an impressive first half of the year with a gain of +30%. Historically, this is a good sign for the rest of the year. When the ATHEX gains more than 10% in the first half of a year, the average gain for the second half is 10.8%. This trend suggests that strong performance in the first half often sets the stage for a strong back half of the year.

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