The "Agios Vasilis" Rally
Hope everyone is enjoying the holidays. I’ll keep this one short and sweet.
The “Santa Claus Rally” refers to the tendency for stock markets to rise during the final trading days of December and the first days of January. While this phenomenon is well known in the U.S., our analysis shows that a similar seasonal pattern also appears in Greek equities so lets call it the “Agios Vasilis Rally”
We looked at 30 years of data on the Athens General Index and found that this year-end into early January rally has been present in Greek markets as well. Out of 30 observations, Greek stocks were higher 25 times during this Santa Claus rally period, with an average gain of 2.6%.
The year is not over yet, but so far in 2025, Greek stocks are roughly flat during this seasonal window.
From a broader seasonality perspective, January is also one of the strongest months for Greek stocks. Historically, it ranks as the third best month, behind April and July. January has delivered an average gain of 2.3% and shows strong consistency, with the market finishing higher more than 60% of the time. All else equal, it’s a good sign to see bullish seasonal momentum heading into the new year especially since Greek stocks posted gains for five consecutive years.
